Saturday, 30 November, 2024

Bet against the trend: why Chelsea’s recent success won’t last


Enzo Maresca’s reign at Stamford Bridge has gotten off to a promising start. Chelsea have earned 14 points from their last six Premier League matches after a tough opening loss to Manchester City. While their current form has some fans and bookmakers paying attention, a closer look suggests this might be the perfect moment to bet against the Blues—especially with their upcoming fixtures.

Chelsea’s Form Hides Defensive Frailties

There’s no denying that Chelsea have improved compared to last season. They’re currently averaging 2.29 goals per game, with only Manchester City scoring more. However, a leaky defense has continued to undermine their progress. Much of Chelsea’s recent goal-scoring success came against weaker opposition, including a Wolves side with the worst defensive record in the league. A win against a disorganized West Ham team also boosted their goal tally, but when facing more resolute defenses, cracks have begun to show.

In their last match, Chelsea were held to a 1-1 draw by Nottingham Forest—a team with one of the league’s strongest defenses outside of the top four. This suggests that when Chelsea face tougher opponents, their ability to convert chances is significantly diminished.

Tough Matches Loom for Chelsea in the Premier league

Looking ahead, Chelsea are entering a grueling stretch of fixtures that will truly test their mettle. They face Premier League heavyweights Liverpool and Arsenal—both of whom boast rock-solid defenses. Liverpool, in particular, have conceded just two goals in their seven matches this season, maintaining an incredible 0.29 goals conceded per game. Arsenal have also been defensively tight, with only two teams having a better record.

In addition to these league challenges, Chelsea will juggle Europa Conference League commitments and an EFL Cup clash against Eddie Howe’s resurgent Newcastle. With such a congested fixture list, Maresca’s side will need to dig deep, but their defense will likely come under significant pressure.

Liverpool: A Defensive Fortress

Liverpool’s resurgence under Arne Slot has been remarkable. They’ve won nine of their first 10 matches this season, with an xGA (expected goals against) of just 5.72—the best in the Premier League according to https://theanalyst.com. Their record at Anfield is even more impressive, with just three home losses in the league since the start of the 2021/22 season.

Chelsea, meanwhile, have struggled on Merseyside. They’ve won just one of their last nine Premier League trips to Anfield, making the upcoming fixture an uphill battle. Given Liverpool’s defensive strength and Chelsea’s struggles against organized defenses, betting against Chelsea here feels like a calculated move.

Is Now the Time to Bet Against Chelsea?

While Chelsea have shown flashes of brilliance, their defensive issues and upcoming fixtures against the league’s top teams suggest they might be in for a rough patch. The Blues are certainly capable of competing at the top, but until they can shore up their defense, betting against them—especially against teams like Liverpool and Arsenal—might just be the smart play.

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NECHE
NECHE
1 month ago

Actually, I believe in Chelsea and we are winning Liverpool. Our being in form will last. Our lost against Man City was just an eye opener to see our flaws and improve. So I strongly believe the Chelsea of before will continue to be same, winning trophies and awards.

Somtee
Somtee
1 month ago

Even though we are lacking in the defensive side, that doesn’t make us on a weaker side
I believe Chelsea will beat Liverpool or we hold them down to a draw

Mr. Tato
Mr. Tato
1 month ago

Exactly what I was thinking this week. Wise to bet against!!!

Basit
Basit
1 month ago
Reply to  Mr. Tato

Well Chelsea are a working progress….but I believe they can shock Liverpool

Peter Amos
Peter Amos
1 month ago

Chelsea has no hold in this league race. They will surely drop form and it’s happening soon, that I know and sure of. For the match with Liverpool, its a walk in the park for the reds. There form can’t be stopped by the blues. I for sure bet against Chelsea.

Emeka
Emeka
1 month ago

Chelsea will definitely crumble soon. They’re too good to be true.

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